If Putin is not stopped in Ukraine!
My last post on Russia’s future brought some criticism that if Putin “was not stopped in Ukraine” then he would aim to takeover other nearby countries — including much of Europe! In my view, Putin would certainly like to recreate some version of “Russia” as it did — or might have — existed in the past, but this does not mean he hankers over the USSR or European physical control.
I accept that in the absence of NATO strength his “Russian idea” would include much of the Baltic countries. This becomes an issue for NATO and what it stands for! I doubt that — even with Trump — Putin would want to get directly involved in such a messy fight.
Apart from NATO members, the only really exposed country is Georgia — particularly because of a common border.
While there may be “Russian orientated separatists” in northern Kazakhstan, any Russian move to annex this territory would be forcibly resisted by Astana (implicitly backed by China which does not want instability in this area). The Nordic countries (even without NATO) would be tough nuts to crack, as would Azerbaijan (which would be strongly backed by Turkiye).
Finally, I want to point out that Putin in his “dictator” role is necessarily less severe than North Korea etc. Russians have knowledge and experience of the “West” and basics of democracy and Putin must take considerable notice of public opinion. He needs some story of “victory” that protects his personal future (in any form). While starting another significant war (apart from Ukraine) might appeal to some Russias, my view is that it would be the beginning of a general public revolt.