Geopolitcs is all the rage now, and is leading some “analysts” to say things about Russia that display ignorance. Here Tina Fordham — talking to Pyotr Kurzin — suggests that Russia might breakup due to ethnic tensions (she mentions non-Slavs in Siberia) or Chinese annexation in the Russian Far East. 

Of course, nothing is impossible, but:

(a) I lived in Siberia for several years (in Irkutsk until 2022) and while some indigenous groups might hanker for independence, the number of Slavs and the power of the Russian state is such that these will remain dreams;

(b) While some Chinese would like to see Vladivostok and Primorsky Province etc part of China (even if only improving access to the sea for some northern China areas), this geographical area is very “Russian” — as I know from my time living and working there in the 1990s! Here Tina seems to suggest that Chinese commercial advances could be followed by political and military action. No matter who is in power in Moscow, any Chinese military action in the region would be met with nuclear weapons.

Tina Fordham also talks about Putin losing Central Asia and Armenia. She is right in both cases, but Central Asian countries are just becoming more nationalistic rather than Russia haters — as I can also attest from spending a lot of time there. There is no new “Great Game” for influence in the region!

Armenia is, as Fordham suggests, a “strategically significant” country but in reality it is not strategically significant to Russia in any geographical, economic, or military sense.

You can watch Fordham and Kurzin podcast here: