A Chinese strategy to take physical control of Taiwan under the presidency of Donald Trump would probably succeed — by playing on Trump’s psychology!

Subsequent to publishing an extensive analysis of Trump’s psychology — https://www.jeffschubert.com/trump-as-ceo-compared-to-famous-dictators/ — several weeks ago, I have read the “The Room Where It Happened” by John Bolton, Trump’s National Security Adviser in the first Trump administration.

This is how China could take Taiwan!

One Washington impulse would be an urge, felt by the majority of law makers and security officials, to use military action to thwart China. This would not involve an attack on the Chinese mainland for fear of a similar Chinese response but would involve attacks on Chinese military assets in Taiwan and in surrounding seas. Japan and South Korea would unlikely become involved fearing direct Chinese retaliation.

The other less predictable impulse in Washington would be the psychology of Trump. His MAGA base does not want war and Trump has images of himself on Mount Rushmore (along with George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln). Trump’s focus on self means that he will initially believe that his “personal” relationship with Xi Jinping will resolve the situation.  

When Xi Jinping takes Trump’s telephone call, talks about China’s “historical” claims and the huge opportunities for American business (and Trump) to make money in China – having previously announced various targeted trade and investment concessions for chosen US businesses — then Trump will weaken after telling his security advisers that he “knows how to get the biggest deal ever” and achieve “world peace” — and that he will receive the Nobel Peace Prize!

Trump’s security advisers will be horrified, but many in the US military will be privately relieved because they are not confident that they could win a wide military confrontation in the Taiwan arena.

Depending on the nature and speed of events, Trump will momentarily express a desire to be tougher – and even talk of a military response – but if China is smart it will work hard to minimize television images of dead Taiwanese. Trump will then acquiesce telling Americans how great he is and press secretary will post to X: “President Trump made this happen. Give him the Nobel Peace Prize!” Trump’s ego may even allow him to then publicly say “Rushmore”!

China should not put up a “Mission Accomplished” sign – but it will have made good start!