If for some reason Putin unexpectedly dies – for example, he is killed in an aircraft accident (like the president of Iran) – it is worth considering who be the most likely successors.

The Moscow based Minchenko Consulting pyramid list might give us some clues. At the top are three businessmen — Arkady Rotenberg, Gennady Timchenko, Yuri Kovalchuk – who are probably too far removed from the broader Kremlin power structures to be contenders. Sergei Chemezov is a possibility, but would he want the direct responsibilities of president, or would he prefer to be in the background? Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin would undoubtedly want the job but the “teacher’s pet” might not be seen as tough enough by the security forces. Even the experienced and highly intelligent Georgi Malenkov eventually fell to the more hardline Nikita Khrushchev!

The next row down in the Minchenko list contains Igor Sechin, Sergei Kiriyenko, Dmitry Medvedev, and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin.

Could Sechin attempt to be a successor to Putin – as Bormann did with Hitler? Sechin is seven years younger than Putin (although photos would suggest he is nowhere near as fit) and it would not be surprising if he wanted the top job if the opportunity arose. If we accept suggestions – by Mark Galeotti and others – that Putin is seeking to nurture a “new generation” of “Putinists” it would be surprising if Putin was to designate Sechin his successor. Moreover, after the May 2024 reshuffle, according to Galeotti, Sechin has become “simply a hydro-carbon baron” and not a clan leader. Kiriyenko and Medvedev would clearly jump at the chance to succeed Putin and Kiriyenko’s position inside the Kremlin would be an advantage – but he would probably be seen a too much of a dilettante. It is hard to conceive of Medvedev being acceptable no matter hard he tries to be a tough guy. Sobyanin presently has a great job and may not want to make a move unless assured that he – and not the siloviki power structures – would be running the country.

The third row in the Minchenko list consisted of Sergei Shoigu and Nikolai Patrushev. Shoigu’s power depends completely on his personal relationship with Putin, and he would not last long as a successor no matter how he got there. Patrushev has much wider connections in the upper echelons of power, is close to Putin, and now has a son – Nikolai Patrushev – who is a Deputy Prime Minister. If there was ever to be a struggle for power in the event of say, the unexpected death of Putin in the near future, Nikolai Patrushev – along with Sechin – would probably be a player. Whether or not this would be a Hua Guofeng / Deng Xiaoping or a Malenkov / Krushchev type struggle would depend on the circumstances.

So, in the event of Putin eventually deciding to nominate a successor, Dyumin would seem to be the most likely choice. In the event that Putin does not get to choose because of his sudden death, Mishustin would emerge at the top for at least an interim period.

Read more in my book:

“PUTIN and his Lieutenants: compared to Mao, Napoleon, Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Ataturk” is now available on Amazon:  

https://www.amazon.com.au/gp/product/B0DBGYB3RR