I first went to Russia in 1991 and finally left in October 2022 – that is, eight months after the February invasion of Ukraine! So, I have not been there for 4 years and my opinions should be read with this in mind.

I know from my own conversations in 2022 that while most Russians were unhappy about the invasion there were also optimistic feelings held by many that a quick war would enhance Russian greatness – mostly measured by larger territory. There was also a stunning immediate fear generated shutdown in critical analysis and speech with even close friends referring to the “special military operation” rather than invasion or war.

There would initially be a great heave of relief if the war suddenly ended with Russian “victory’.

Within a few short months most Russians would move on have firmly focused their thoughts on the future of the lives and their civil society. While Putin would still be seen as a great hero there would be increasing talk about the need to revitalize and repair the non-military economy. Putin – and his closest associates – would know that this is a logical necessity but emotionally could not allow any significant move to decentralize power to achieve this. Words would be said about democracy and free elections but little would be done in practice.

There would likely to be two specific forces exerting themselves below the surface public discourse. One is the ambitions of people in the 30 to 50 or so age range who feel that the time has come for them to achieve their ambitions – and they will be increasingly angry that Putin and Co. would not move on. Many of these people would be in official positions in Moscow and the regions but many would just want nothing to do with the government sector and have been keeping their heads down during the conflict. The other force is the return of many soldiers – and their guns – into domestic life. Psychological reintegration would not be as easy as resorting to whatever violence eases their path.

Economic recovery would not be rapid. The stimulus of military expenditure would decline and foreign investment would be minimal given the past asset expropriations. Putin would make overtures to the Europe but would not be well received while the United States under Donald Trump would aim to be more politically accommodative.

While Putin Vladimir is alive – in whatever capacity – Russia would be stuck in a sort of nowhere land. Internally, Putin would just be there with his shadow looming over everything and restricting significant change. Externally, no friends that really care about it (not even China), a neighbor whose citizens absolutely hate it (Ukraine) and would engage in revenge killings, and a remaining world that just wants to keep its distance.

Finally, Russia would not fall apart and it would not invade a NATO country.