Gillian Tett wrote in Financial Times (2 January 2026) that the Swiss Federal Intelligence Service (FIS) has published a manual about “cognitive blind spots” which says: “Many people have little to no knowledge of how human thinking works”.

Here I use several Tett examples to consider Trump’s cognitive blind spots in foreign policy.

Group think (“adhering to the cosy assumptions of our tribe”)

Trump has now surrounded himself with enthusiastic “yes” officials who compete in their shows of devotion. This makes group-think inevitable. Trump supporters would argue that everyone is focussed on the same goals and thus make success more likely. However, group think can lead to major mistakes (such as the invasion of Iraq in 2003).

Anchoring (“relying exclusively on whatever information we see first, say on social media”)

Trump is notorious for changing his public utterances on issues, but it is unclear to what degree his basic view – which he will mostly come back to – is determined by what information he first heard or saw.

Confirmation bias: (“only seeing data that reinforces pre-existing views”)

Trump will always seek information that reinforces his existing views irrespective of whether they are a result of “anchoring”. We see this in his dealings with Vladimir Putin which reflects his view of a special relationship with certain strong personalities.

Mirror imaging (“assuming others think like us”)

Trump assumes that leaders of other countries are driven mainly by money and personal vanity. Trump seems incapable of understanding things like nationalism even as he claims that he is working to make the USA “great” again mainly based on financial and business aspects of tariffs. Trump’s personal vanity, rather than any understanding of defence technology and its capabilities, is the driving the idea of a “Trump-class battleship” and “Golden Dome” missile defence system.

Absence of evidence (“failing to think about the data we lack”)

In a narrow business sense in a specific industry, such as real-estate, this may not be a major disadvantage, but in international relations it is a recipe for disaster. Trump’s claim that the US would “run” the government of Venezuela after the overthrow of Nicolas Maduro reflected an absence of knowledge of the complexities of such a task.

“Survivor bias: (“judging data only with success stories, not failures”)

Trump has had many notable successes as president, including reduced fighting in a number of places like Gaza, bombing of Iran, and the capture of Maduro. These successes are not the result of intrinsic Trump talents but are the result of existing US financial and military power. Trump mostly defines success in PR terms and the risk is that he will increasingly see himself as a genius in foreign policy — and will disregard more cautious voices!

My report, “Trump Psychology and Capability compared to Famous Dictators”, can be read here:

https://www.jeffschubert.com/trump-as-ceo-compared-to-famous-dictators/