Unlike a nuclear attack a cyber-attack is not readily apparent in source or degree. At present US AI capabilities seem to be superior to those of China and in a particular circumstance Chinese leaders might conclude that the US is using cyber capabilities in lieu of military force to achieve some goal – maybe defence of Taiwan! Rather than accepting this – with its unknown potentially devastating consequences – China might decide that a severe warning needs to be sent to the USA via a nuclear strike.

Such a Chinese attack on a US military base (particularly on US sovereign territory) risks killing many civilians and would leave much photographic evidence that the US could exploit for propaganda purposes. An option would a Chinese nuclear attack on a US aircraft carrier strike group while it is at sea – which in military terms might be quite effective.

How would the USA respond? It would certainly want to respond with it own nuclear attack. But on what? Probably an attack on a Chinese military facility on Chinese territory because they are few, if any, acceptable targets outside of China that are in any way equivalent to the destruction of an aircraft carrier strike group. China might be prepared to take this risk knowing that the logical the next step on an escalation ladder would be an attack on a US military base that would also probably kill many US civilians. If allowed to get out of control cities on both sides could be targeted.

Who would blink first? My bet would be that China would be prepared to suffer more than the US – and that US leaders would know this and would backdown first!